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Economists: U.S. has no way to avoid double dip recession

Linda Young – AHN News Writer

Washington, DC, United States (AHN) – The U.S. economy is “tipping into a new recession,” the esteemed Economic Cycle Research Institute says.

Moreover, there is absolutely nothing that policy makers can do to stop it.

In a statement on its website, ECRI stated that it warned its clients last week about the looming double-dip recession. The only thing ECRI says it is not certain of is whether the recession is just around the corner or if it has already started.

The ECRI also made a case for why people should heed its forecast.

“ECRI’s recession call isn’t based on just one or two leading indexes, but on dozens of specialized leading indexes, including the U.S. Long Leading Index, which was the first to turn down – before the Arab Spring and Japanese earthquake – to be followed by downturns in the Weekly Leading Index and other shorter-leading indexes. In fact, the most reliable forward-looking indicators are now collectively behaving as they did on the cusp of full-blown recessions, not ‘soft landings,’” the organization said.

In addition, the institute said the Economist, a leading financial publication, had noted the ECRI was the only entity that had correctly called three recessions without any false calls in between.

The ECRI explained what a new recession means for the nation.

“It’s important to understand that recession doesn’t mean a bad economy – we’ve had that for years now. It means an economy that keeps worsening, because it’s locked into a vicious cycle,” ECRI said in a statement. “It means that the jobless rate, already above 9 percent, will go much higher, and the federal budget deficit, already above a trillion dollars, will soar.”

“Here’s what ECRI’s recession call really says: if you think this is a bad economy, you haven’t seen anything yet. And that has profound implications for both Main Street and Wall Street,” the institute added.

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Obama vows to do away with millionaire tax cuts, reduce deficit

Tejinder Singh – AHN News Correspondent

Washington, DC, United States (AHN) – President Barack Obama on Monday announced his recommendations to lawmakers for fiscal moves to enhance revenue flow into the government coffers while reducing the deficit.

Addressing a select audience of around 200 along with journalists on the outer circle in Rose Garden, Obama exhibited the passion and language of a political campaign, lambasting his opposition as he outlined his initial submission to the deficit reduction bipartisan Super Committee with ambitious plans to cut trillions from the national debt, with nearly half of the reductions from tax increases.

Obama described his proposals as a “plan that reduces our debt by more than $4 trillion, and achieves these savings in a way that is fair — by asking everybody to do their part so that no one has to bear too much of the burden on their own.”

“All I’m saying is that those who have done well, including me, should pay their fair share in taxes,” Obama said, cautioning lawmakers that he would veto any legislation “that puts all the burden on closing the deficit on ordinary Americans.”

Obama went down the Bush-era memory lane, saying, “During this past decade, profligate spending in Washington, tax cuts for multi-millionaires and billionaires, the cost of two wars, and the recession turned a record surplus into a yawning deficit, and that left us with a big pile of IOUs.”

Reacting to Republicans’ weekend comments calling his proposals “class warfare,” Obama said, “This is not class warfare. It’s math.”

On Sunday, Republican Paul Ryan, chairman of the House Budget Committee and a strong advocate of deep cuts but no tax rises, labeled Obama’s plans as “class warfare.”

Amid laughter in the Rose Garden Monday, the president added, “The money is going to have to come from some place. And if we’re not willing to ask those who’ve done extraordinarily well to help America close the deficit and we are trying to reach that same target of $4 trillion, then the logic, the math says everybody else has to do a whole lot more: We’ve got to put the entire burden on the middle class and the poor. We’ve got to scale back on the investments that have always helped our economy grow. We’ve got to settle for second-rate roads and second-rate bridges and second-rate airports, and schools that are crumbling.”

In his plan outlining the tax increases to get more money into American coffers, Obama called upon the wealthy and corporations to pay their “fair share” to cut the deficit. “Middle-class families shouldn’t pay higher taxes than millionaires and billionaires,” he said. “It’s hard to argue against that.”

Obama’s proposal, now termed the “Buffett rule,” would make Americans who earn more than $1 million pay the same rate of tax as those who earn less. The proposal got its name from billionaire financier Warren Buffett, who recently said that he and his wealthy peers pay relatively less tax than the people who work for them by benefiting from tax loopholes that see earnings on investment taxed at lower rates than wages.

Among other proposals, some $250 billion of spending on Medicare – the healthcare program for the elderly would be cut. There is a condition: Obama would veto any bill from the lawmakers on the subject if it did not include new taxes on the rich.

The latest Rose Garden address is part of a series of proposals being churned out by the White House to streamline efforts to do deficit reduction and inject health into a sluggish American economy reeling under high employment rates and rising poverty levels.

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European stocks down as Merkel loses election

Jupiter Kalambakal – AHN News Reporter

London, United Kingdom (AHN) – Market indexes in Europe plunged on Monday and the German benchmark index deteriorated to a two-year low after German Chancellor Angela Merkel lost a regional election. Banks plunged after the United States sued 17 banks for $196 billion and sought compensation for misleading investors in the sale of mortgage securities.

The Euro Stoxx 50 index of eurozone bluechip stocks plummeted 4.9 percent, while the Stoxx Europe 50 index, which includes some major U.K. companies, slid 3.97 percent.

Merkel’s main opponent, the Social Democrats, took 35.7 percent nationally to win Sunday’s election. The chancellor’s Christian Democratic Union had only 23.1 percent.

Deutsche Bank AG, Germany’s biggest bank, fell 7.8 percent to 23.99 euros, the lowest price in more than two years, after it was included in the list of 17 banks sued by the U.S.

Barclays fell 4.7 percent to 157.39 pence, HSBC Holdings declined 3 percent to 508.9 pence, Societe Generale dived 8.6 percent to 20.25 euros and BNP Paribas sank 6.3 percent to 31.30 euros. Commerzbank AG fell 5.9 percent to 18.10 euros.

Anxiety hit the European banks after German negotiators canceled their meeting with Greek counterparts as both parties failed to agree on terms of collateral to aid the Mediterranean country with its debt crisis.

U.S. markets were closed for the Labor Day holiday.

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U.K. admits weak retail sales in July

Linda Young – AHN News Writer

London, United Kingdom (AHN) – Retail sales, excluding gasoline, grew weakly in the United Kingdom during July rising only 0.2 percent compared to the 0.8 percent growth rate in June, according to Office for National Statistics (ONS).

A drop in the sales of clothing and household goods offset the increase in food sales.

Sales of clothing, shoes and household goods dropped by 0.3 percent each, which offsets the 0.7 percent growth in food store sales.

Economists blame the decline in retail sales on inflation in prices coupled with job losses and stagnant wages for those with jobs.

Sales were also down by 0.2 percent in July compared to the same month a year earlier.

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Nonfarm payroll for July posts modest increase of 117,000

Linda Young – AHN News Writer

Washington, DC, United States (AHN) – The national unemployment rate for the month of July remained little unchanged at 9.1 while total nonfarm payroll employment rose by a modest 117,000, according to the monthly report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Although the 117,000 jobs created during July was slightly better than anticipated, it was still not enough to keep up with growth in the number of working-age Americans, let alone make a dent in the unemployment figures. Economists say the nation must create from 120,000 to 200,000 jobs monthly to keep up with people entering the labor market for the first time.

In addition, the percentage of working-age Americans who held either a part- or full-time job continued its slide in July, falling to 63.9 percent from 64.2 percent in June. Moreover, about 8.4 million people were involuntarily employed part-time for economic reasons in July, including people whose hours have been cut back or who have been unable to find full-time work, or about the same numbers as in June.

The gain of 117,000 jobs came from openings in health care, retail trade, manufacturing and mining while federal, state and local governments continue to shed jobs.

Unemployment rates among major groups stood at:

  • Adult men 9.0 percent
  • Adult women 7.9 percent
  • Teenagers 25.0 percent
  • Whites 8.1 percent
  • Blacks 15.9 percent
  • Hispanics 11.3 percent

In addition, the number of people who were unemployed for less than 5 weeks dropped by 387,000 in July while the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and longer) remained little changed at 6.2 million. Some 44.4 percent of the unemployed are long-term.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised some figures from earlier months. It revised the total nonfarm payroll employment for May from +25,000 to +53,000 and for June revised employment from +18,000 to +46,000.

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Gas prices changin driving, spending habits of most Americans

Ayinde O. Chase – AHN News Staff

Chicago, IL, United States (AHN) – Nearly half (41) of all Americans surveyed in a recent poll say they are driving less or combining trips to lighten the burden of rising gas prices.

According to a Tell It Now(SM) poll released today from ComPsych Corporation another 22 percent said they have cut household spending and 13 percent have put off vacation time because of fuel costs.

“The continued climb of fuel costs has caused employees to rethink their commute as well as their household expenditures,” said Dr. Richard A. Chaifetz, Chairman and CEO of ComPsych. “The financial calls we receive have shown a renewed interest in budgeting, as families and individuals struggle to offset the gas premium by saving in other areas.”

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California state lawmakers pass budget with deep cuts

Linda Young – AHN News Writer

Sacramento, CA, United States (AHN) – California state lawmakers late Tuesday passed a $85.9 billion budget that aims to eliminate a $10 billion deficit by cutting spending, deferring some payments and projecting higher revenues.

The budget contains deep spending cuts, but Republicans managed to block personal income tax and sales tax increases that Gov. Jerry Brown wanted to allow taxpayers to vote on extending.

Spending cuts total $14.6 billion, much of which was agreed upon in March. However, lawmakers added another $2.5 billion before passing the bill in order to make the numbers work.

Cuts likely would have been even deeper, but lawmakers are betting that the improving economy will bring in an additional $4 billion in tax revenue over the coming fiscal year. However, if actual tax revenue fails to meet that estimate lawmakers say they will have to go back for more spending cuts.

Spending cuts included $1 billion less for the Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation and $5 billion less for the Department of Health and Human Services. In addition, the state’s two university systems will lose $650 million each in state money.

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Half of Americans suffering while rich prosper

Ayinde O. Chase – AHN News Staff

Yonkers, NY, United States (AHN) – The saying “the rich get richer and the poor get poorer,” is seemingly true based on a two-year study of the groups. For American households earning less than $50,000 per year, it has been far more difficult on the economic road to recovery than their more affluent counterparts.

For more affluent households, those earning $100,000 or more, economic recovery began as far back as February 2010—when the Consumer Reports Sentiment Index score for this group moved into positive territory (above 50). In that time, sentiment among this affluent group, which represents 18 percent of Americans, has continued to rise and has reached a two-year high of 54.8.

However in the same period, sentiment levels of households earning less than $50,000 bottomed out in October of 2009. Since then, sentiment has barely risen among this group that represents 50 percent of the U.S. population.

“We are seeing a tale of two very different recoveries,” said Ed Farrell, a director of Survey Research at the Consumer Reports National Research Center. “While things have been improving for the wealthiest Americans for some time, lower-income families still have very little to be positive about.”

Analysts believe the disparity in sentiment levels could be attributed to the fact that lower-income households have suffered more pronounced and frequent financial troubles throughout the last two years.

Estimates place the financial suffering among lower-income Americans as being three to five times the level of those earning $100,000 or more over the course of the recession.

One of the biggest areas of disparity between the two groups is in their ability to afford medical coverage and prescription medication. The percentages of home ownership is a clear predictor of the two groups. Ninety percent of affluent households claim to own a home while only half of the lower income group can say the same.

Even now, missed mortgage payments among households earning less than $50,000 have soared, and are approaching 9 percent in June. Among the more affluent Americans, missed mortgage payment claims are below 2 percent and falling.

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Out-Of-Network Ambulance Rides Can Bring Out-Of-Pocket Expenses

This spring, Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts launched a policy aimed at getting more emergency medical services providers to join its network: It began sending checks for out-of-network private ambulance rides directly to plan members rather than to the EMS providers. The move forces these providers to pursue consumers individually for payment - a more complicated process than getting the money straight from BCBS. (Government ambulance services are exempt from the new policy.)

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